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Deloitte's 2011 technology, media and telecommunications predictions include a lot of good news for television, not the least of which is its status as the current super media.
How television will dominate:
- Viewers worldwide will watch 140 billion more hours of television than last year.
- Worldwide TV advertising will increase by $10 billion.
- The global TV audience will grow by 40 million to 3.7 billion viewers.
- TV shows will be the most common conversation topic around the world and the subject of more than a billion tweets.
Implications of television's continuously improving technology:
- A steady migration to high definition (HD) should provide significant opportunities for up-selling to premium television subscribers.
- The growing penetration of large, flat-panel televisions and the rise in HD broadcast material should increase the visual impact of programming advertising.
Regarding the proliferation of PVRs (Deloitte expects that by the end of 2001, more than 50 per cent of television owners in the U.S. and UK will own a personal/digital video recorder (PVR/DVR):
- Most PVR/DVR users will continue to watch the majority of their television live, leaving television advertising almost completely unaffected in these markets.
- Studies show even ads viewed at 12 times their normal speed are still retained by viewers.
- As the volume of social commentary grows, viewers are likely to attach increasing value to "first broadcast programming" and be even more locked into the schedule.
And, how will the vast majority of television viewing be delivered in 2011?
According to Deloitte, "push" (schedules determined by channel planners) will beat "pull" (schedules determined by the viewer's use of their TV's built-in search capability for television programming.)
Here are some reasons why:
- Price - television sets and set-top boxes that incorporate the most advanced search capabilities will add at least 10 per cent to retail prices.
- Customers in the market for a new TV set might opt for a larger screen rather than paying a premium for enhanced search capabilities.
- For most people, television continues to be a passive experience - although viewers value the option of choice, often they do not exercise it.
For a complete look at Deloitte's 2011 TMT Predictions, click here.
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